Research Vault
- All Initiation Reports have the price at initiation and upside potential listed
- Bias towards small and mid capitalizations; sector agnostic; about 90% U.S. & 10% Foreign names
- Each "Open" position will be sized between 5%-15% in the Pernas Portfolio
- All closed positions will have the performance result listed
- About 40% of Pernas Research's Initiation Reports receive a "neutral" rating. Read about why we publish neutrals here
(NAS:XMTR) Xometry: The Future Digital Manufacturing Leviathan
Remitly ::UPDATE:: ADD
(LSE:CARD) Card Factory: Unwrapping the Potential
Doc Martens ::UPDATE:: ADD
META ::UPDATE:: TRIM
(LSE:DOCS) Dr. Martens: Timeless Appeal
Remitly ::Update:: ADD
(NAS:RELY) Remitly: X-Border Digital Remittance Winner
(NYSE:NRP) Natural Resource Partners: Royalties With Protected Downside
META ::UPDATE:: ADD
We added to META as a myriad of fears from regulation to TikTok to Zuckerberg having gone AWOL has reached an all-time high. Here is what the market thinks of Zuckerberg’s capital allocation (keeping in mind Zuckerberg has a phenomenal track record with monetizing the core business to purchasing Instagram and WhatsApp). The core business earns about 32B (using about 15B for maintenance capex). Between RL and growth capex, META is spending roughly 27B. Using a conservative 10x multiple on 2022 EBIT, one arrives at $320B. META currently trades at…
(NAS:META) Facebook: The Next Verse
(NYSE:DFIN) Donnelley Financial: A Tale of 2 Companies
Donnelley Financial (DFIN) has seen declining revenues since its spinoff and investors have written it off as a dying print business. It is easy to overlook its incredible brand strength in certain business segments along with the successful transitioning of a growing share of its revenue to SaaS with this overhang. For a few key reasons discussed in this article, we believe their fundamentals are now poised to improve and there is 100% upside for investors from current levels. Background DFIN spun off from RR Donnelley in 2016. The company…
(NAS:AGX) Argan Inc: Powering America
Rex American ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We have exited out of Rex American (NYSE:REX). REX is up 50% since our initiation report (here). We stated that there was ~50% upside in the report. REX is one of the best-run ethanol producers in the US. REX has never lost money in the last decade despite volatile commodity cycles and generated record profits in 2023 due to high crush spreads. Contrast this to other publicly listed competitors such as Alto and GPRE that floundered despite a favorable environment. Although we believe the management team is superb, our reason…
(LSE:AWE) Alphawave Semi: Surfing the AI Wave?
Titan Machinery ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
(LSE:BRBY) Burberry: The Dark Knight
Zumiez ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
(NYSE:REX) Rex American: An Ethanol Producer Poised for Growth
Endor ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
(NAS:RELL) Richardson Electronics: A Niche Specialist
SES imagotag ::UPDATE:: HOLD
(NYSE:TITN) Titan Machinery: A Giant Amongst Dealerships
SES Imagotag ::UPDATE:: ADD
(NAS:ZUMZ) Zumiez: Old School Retail
Peloton ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
(MU:E2N) Endor: A Dominant Brand In The Sim Racing Space
Investment thesis Endor (E2N:MU) is a premium simulation racing brand that has been growing revenues at a 30% CAGR over the last five years. As the dominant premium brand with about 40% market share, Endor stands to capitalize on the rising demand for sim racing. The industry is poised to expand as sim racing gains legitimacy with motorcar sports organizations coupled with the continued immersion of games. We believe Endor is trading at a discount to intrinsic value of at least 30%. Business Background Simulation racing (sim racing) is an…
SES Imagotag ::UPDATE:: TRIM
SES Imagotag was up 62% in 2022. We have trimmed SES Imagotag as the margin of safety has decreased and the percentage it constitutes of our portfolio has reached above-healthy levels. SES saw an inflection in demand for their offerings as inflationary worries caused retailers to lean more heavily into electronic shelf labels as a means to increase productivity and profitability. To summarize some events of note in 2022: – SES is on track to have revenues of greater than €600mm in 2022-a growth rate of 45%. – SES signed…
American Outdoor ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
American Outdoors was our largest detractor in 2022 being down 50% YTD. To recap some of the factors when we took a position in January 2021: Although revenues were predicted accurately coming out of COVID, operating expenses were not. AOUT has seen an uplift in expenses driven by increased freight costs, standalone expenses, and an expanded distribution footprint. This amount added up to roughly an extra $10mm/ year in costs; an estimated $25mm in earnings became $15mm. The lesson learned here is to be especially cautious about forecasting expenses on…
(NAS:PTON) Peloton: The Fitness Appliance
Peloton is one of the more polarizing companies we have come across. The two investing camps are of the opinion that PTON is either: a) a $2k coat rack or b) the best thing since sliced bread and will make all gyms obsolete. We find polarization to be a signal into the potential strength of a brand, it is not hate//love but indifference that kills a brand. Other polarizing brands are Tesla, Apple, etc. If nothing else it contributes to share of mind. The fitness industry has seen a myriad…
Centrus Energy ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We exited LEU for a gain of 350%. Given the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions, there is a risk LEU is restricted from obtaining separative work units (SWUs ) from Russia. This would effectively demolish its business. Given this uncertainty, we have exited the position. INVESTMENT DISCLAIMERS & INVESTMENT RISKSPast performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry significant risk, and it’s important to note that we are not in the business of providing investment advice. All investment decisions of an individual remain the specific responsibility…
Delta Apparel ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We closed DLA for a gain of 5%. Relative to other positions, DLA is more illiquid and not as well positioned in an inflationary environment. DLA sells a commodity and with its heavy manufacturing footprint in a sustained inflationary environment, its margins would deteriorate significantly. Even if it can pass increased operating expenses onto the customer, its maintenance capital expenditures would go up considerably. Coupled with management’s recent caginess about its Direct to Garment (DTG) segment – which we believed was the primary value driver in DLA – and reluctance…
Whole Earth Brands ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We closed out FREE at a loss of 30%. Although its licorice business is as dominant as ever, we have lost conviction in management’s ability to roll up brands. One-time expenses continue to exist (it has been almost 18 months since the acquisitions of Swerve and Wholesome brands) under the label “supply chain reinvention” accounting for $8mm in 2021 with other miscellaneous expenses accounting for another $8mm. For a company generating around $40mm in EBIT, these are not small expenses. These expenses are likely an artifact of the legacy brands…
Franklin Covey ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We closed out FC for a gain of 120%. FC is trading slightly above fair value and given the need to raise cash, we have decided to exit. The fundamentals of the business are still intact and their B2B software offerings will continue to do well. INVESTMENT DISCLAIMERS & INVESTMENT RISKSPast performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry significant risk, and it’s important to note that we are not in the business of providing investment advice. All investment decisions of an individual remain the specific…
Paysign ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
Paysign (PAYS) was our most disappointing pick in 2021 with a 31% drawdown from our cost basis. We believed PAYS was undervalued as the share price had gotten hammered due to the deluge of stimulus along with COVID inhibiting donors from giving plasma. However the long-term fundamentals were still intact, plasma demand along with plasma centers was still growing even though supply had slowed. PAYS is a payment processor for the prepaid cards plasma donors get. It acts as a toll booth on the money donors receive/spend; the less money that…
Iteris ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
(NYSE:DLA) Delta Apparel: Printing Apparel And FCF
Delta Apparel (DLA) is a vertically integrated apparel company that is composed of three segments: a manufacturer of basic and private labels, apparel brands, and most recently a Direct to Garment (DTG) fulfiller for brands and retailers. DLA has leveraged its competitive advantages from being a vertically integrated apparel company towards DTG so that it can supply printed custom shirts to brands and retailers in a faster and cheaper fashion than competitors. Given the rapid rise of DTG and DLA’s competitive position in this industry, DLA has about one hundred…
(PAR:SESL) SES Imagotag: The Dominant Player Digitizing Retailers
The global retail sector is gargantuan, with about $30 Trillion in sales, the US makes up about 15% of this. The retail sector has been facing both revenue and margin compression as it is squeezed by rapidly growing e-commerce players. The future looks bleak unless the retail experience fundamentally changes. The digitization of retailers is looking to be the solution. It has the potential to increase revenues and margins for retailers while bettering the customer experience, a win-win. As this industry evolves, there will be a blurring between the retail…
Channel Advisor ::UPDATE:: CLOSED
We sold ECOM for a gain of 22%. Our thesis was that channel managers would continue to be prevalent for retailers and DTC brands as it was in their interest to spread a “fishing net” as wide as possible. We believed the e-commerce trend had been accelerated due to COVID and as the leading channel manager, Channel Advisor would stand to benefit. However, recent data suggests that e-commerce has not accelerated ten years into the future, but instead only 1-2 years. Along with Shopify becoming a more existential threat and…
(NAS:AOUT) American Outdoor Brands: An Undervalued Spinoff
American Outdoor Brands spun off from Smith and Wesson in July of 2020. AOUT is composed of both outdoor and gun accessory brands. Due to COVID and the subsequently accelerated affinity for outdoor activities, about half of AOUT’s brands have experienced triple-digit growth yoy. Given AOUT’s strong brands and their success in e-commerce and DTC, we believe AOUT is in a terrific position to take advantage of the record number of hunters and campers that have recently entered the market. Background AOUT is composed of an assortment of brands that…
(NAS:ECOM) ChannelAdvisor: The De Facto Channel Manager
Due to COVID, the e-commerce environment has accelerated about ten years into the future. We believe that with the reduced churn rate and more relevant offerings, ChannelAdvisor (ECOM) is poised to take advantage of the more competitive e-commerce environment. Background ChannelAdvisor is a market-leading channel manager that enables brands and retailers to integrate, manage and optimize their merchandise sales across a hundred plus online channels including Amazon, Etsy, Shopify, Google, eBay, Walmart, Facebook, and many more. ECOM offers solutions such as marketplace integration, analytics, digital marketing, inventory management, and drop…
(NAS:FREE) Whole Earth: A Sweet Company To Buy
Whole Earth (NASDAQ:FREE) is a consumer package company with multiple market-leading brands trading at around 10x 2021 earnings. Given its dominance in the artificial sweetener and licorice industries along with a rapidly growing natural sweetener segment, we believe FREE has a 50 to 100 percent upside from here. Background Whole Earth became public via the ACT II SPAC in June 2020. This acquisition bought two subsidiaries – Merisant and MAFCO – from Ron Perelman’s conglomerate into the public light. Under the conglomerate, these two companies languished in obscurity and funneled…
(NYSE:LEU) Centrus Energy: A Low Risk High Reward Play On Uranium
Centrus is a compelling risk-reward play on the future of US uranium enrichment. It is the sole US-owned uranium enrichment manufacturer, representing billions of dollars of IP and centrifugal technology. Combined with their recent price reset on their long-term contracts making them considerably more profitable, there are multiple ways to win with Centrus. Background Centrus Energy (LEU) represents the efforts of the American government’s uranium enrichment program that was spun off in 1999 for roughly 3B dollars. It was heavily reliant on government backing to support its facilities and after…
(NYSE:FC) Franklin Covey: An Undervalued Brand With An Overlooked SAAS Segment
The market has punished Franklin Covey’s (NYSE:FC) stock price, sending it tumbling 50% YTD. Given its solvency and growing SAAS segment, FC has about 100% upside to its valuation today. Background Franklin Covey is a leader in the highly fragmented L&D (Leadership and Development) corporate training industry. It is best known for content such as The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. On average, roughly $100 billion is spent on external providers such as FC per year. This is set to grow by 13% CAGR for the next four years.…